Was the explosion on the Crimean Bridge from a truck, a boat or a rocket?

According to the Russian authorities, the attack on the Crimean Bridge on Saturday morning was carried out with a truck full of explosives. But other statements went viral almost immediately on social media. What happened? Three possible scenarios. 1 A bomb in a truck According to the National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation, “preliminary data” show that the Crimean Bridge was damaged by an “explosion of a truck” traveling from the Russian mainland to Crimea. Surveillance camera footage shows a truck with a white trailer near the center of the explosion. Freight traffic across the bridge is checked in advance – there is equipment to scan truck trailers. However, Telegram channel Mash published images of a white trailer standing next to the road. At the command of the police, the driver opens the trailer doors, but the officer only takes a cursory glance inside. It is possible that the driver was not aware of the attack and the truck was detonated remotely. Telegram channel Baza and the Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets reported that driver Machir Yusubov had accepted an order on an internet exchange from a transport company from Ulyanovsk to transport 21 tons of film from the southern city of Armavir to Simferopol in Crimea. Such an assignment is not difficult to stage: in 2020, the Ukrainian secret service SBU managed to recruit dozens of Russian mercenaries for a “security job” in Venezuela. However, the men were arrested in Belarus before they could be arrested in Ukraine. Attack on Crimean bridge is a blow for Putin and a boost for Ukraine 2 An attack over or under water There was a lot of speculation on social media: in one of the surveillance videos, something appears to be moving on the water just before the moment of the explosion. A remote-controlled boat filled with explosives? On September 21, the Russian authorities in Crimea reported that such a ‘drone boat’, or Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) had washed up near the naval port of Sevastopol. Photos showed a dark gray low boat equipped with sensors. The drone boat may have been American-made – so-called ‘Unmanned coastal defense vessels’ were part of one of the US deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine. The unarmed boats are intended for reconnaissance, but can probably be equipped with explosives quite easily. But the question remains: is there a boat to be seen in the images? Or is it wave action? 3 A long-range missile Ukraine has been asking for it for months: US long-range missiles. The GMLRS missiles that the US is now providing for the Ukraine-donated HIMARS and MLRS launchers have a range of about 80 kilometers. However, distances of up to 300 kilometers can be bridged with the so-called MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). So far, Washington has said it will not consider the delivery of ATACMS. However, some analysts say the missile may have been made available in secret. Images of HIMARS launch systems in Ukraine with the launch tubes covered with a panel or cloth fueled this rumor. The launcher of the HIMARS system fits six ‘normal’ missiles, but only one ATACMS. Secret supplies from ATACMS could explain the Ukrainian attack on a Russian air base in Crimea in August, well beyond the range of GMLRS missiles. The ATACMS can deliver a 250-pound payload of explosives onto a target with great precision – which seems to be enough for the damage on the Krimbrug. Incidentally, Ukraine is also developing its own long-range missile system, the Hrim-2, but it is unclear to what extent this is operational. A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of October 10, 2022